Based on the latest feedback from Armin, below is what I think would get the ABK xPA deal done. Knowing that BC approval is ultimately needed, are Play, Cloud, YT, and Ads (and finance!) comfortable with these asks?

Just spoke to Armin. I 'soft floated' the current proposal by him, which has been coming together for BC review. He did not react well. He did not like our new 5 year Cloud commit ask in order to fund the exclusive eSports license. He strongly prefers a 3 year construct across the board.

He continues to be consistent that without a $100M/year credits/cash payment, there is no deal ($100M = 10% rev share off $1B/year Play consumer spend base). Armin is specifically pushing for $130M in credits/cash for each of 3 years.

ABK is getting a ton of pressure from Amazon/Twitch to agree to a deal with them ASAP. Another option we have is to remove the eSports Licensing altogether. In this case, ABK would commit to a much smaller Cloud deal (e.g. $20–40M commit) and still require $100M in credits. If this deal falls through, he claims that they will launch their own mobile distribution platform (partnering with another 'major mobile company' — presume Epic), double down with Amazon/Twitch (or MSFT) for Cloud/eSports, and pull away from Stadia.

All this being said, I do think they really want to do this deal with Google (vs competition) and vastly expand the partnership between our companies.