The Leadership Letter

Real correspondence from the people running real companies — and what it reveals about leadership.

Pay to Protect the Price, Not the Product

Sometimes you overpay one customer so you never have to renegotiate with the next hundred.

Regarding the $310m (130m+180m) revenue at risk through 2021: For $130M we calculated the direct revenue forgone if Fortnite is not on Play — using iOS revenue as a proxy, factoring a 70–80% Android vs. iOS monetization multiple, limiting to devices capable of running the game (ramping from 40–70%), and projecting a decay curve over three years (100% → 50% by year 3). For the $180M 'Powerful and well positioned developers able to go on their own': we considered 4 likely developers with established customer relationships, brand recognition, payments know-how, and content/IP strength. The max at risk for this contagion was $600M; multiplied by a 30% probability that these developers would choose not to launch on Play, the expected loss is $180M. The key premise of this proposal is that we would protect the rev share terms and hold them at the 70/30 split in line with our current business model to ensure we don't establish a precedent that puts at risk our broader ecosystem. Based on the investment proposal of providing ~$208M in value, we would effectively be giving up an amount greater than our direct rev share of $130M. The reason to provide value greater than expected rev share is to hedge against the further downside risk of contagion to the next likely set of developers but not breach current economics.

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Court Exhibit
In re Google Play Store Antitrust Litigation (Epic v. Google)
3:21-md-02981 (CAND), Doc. 886-88, filed 2023-12-21
July 21, 2018
Public domain
View the primary source →